Tony Award Predictions

The Tony Awards are announced tomorrow morning, so let's take a minute to make some predictions.

This was an absolutely atrocious year for original musicals, especially on the heels of last season's slew of work like Billy Elliot and Next to Normal. Most of this year's likely nominees are shows that would have been featured in the "Theatrical Event" category last year.

Assuming that Fela, Memphis, and American Idiot are shoe-ins, that leaves one spot, and no strong contenders. The Addams Family seems to lack any goodwill among the New York insiders who are making this decisions, even if the hatred is somewhat unfair. Everyday Rapture only transferred to Broadway at the last minute after Megan Mullaly pulled a Jeremy Piven (enjoy that career as a butter substitute pitch woman, Megan!). Sondheim on Sondheim got love from the outer critics, but doesn't deserve a Tony nomination. That leaves us with Twyla Tharp's non-musical, musical, Come Fly Away for the last spot, in a move that will inspire a fair amount of debate in the coming weeks. The Addams Family will still settle for multiple nominations in acting and set design

The musical revival category seems pretty cut and dry, with A Little Night Music, La Cage Aux Folles, and the highly praised, but not well attended Finian's Rainbow all sure to get some love. The wild card here is Ragtime, which was snubbed by the outer critics, but the most nominated show of the season by the Drama Desk. I personally hated the production, but it seems like a show that will resonate more with the Tony committee than Promises, Promises.

The most wide open category this year will be for best play, where only Red and Next Fall are guaranteed to be nominated. I would have expected Time Stands Still to be on that list until it was snubbed by the Drama Desk. Still though, I think it has enough buzz to get a nomination tomorrow. From there, it's a toss up between Race, Superior Donuts, and Enron. Enron has the advantage of being the shiny, new toy, but the reviews might cool off the voters. I think you will see Donuts slip through, if for no other reason than love for the playwright.

And now... time once again for the game sweeping the nation.... "IF I WERE MICHAEL RIEDEL", where I try to guess how he will bury The Addams Family in his next coulmn.

"The Pakistani Taliban has still not take credit for last weekend's bomb in Times Square, but have said in a prepared statement that they would rather take credit for that mess than the one currently playing one block away at the Lunt-Fontainne Theater. Not even the Taliban will support The Addams Family".